Tap here to turn on desktop notifications to get the news sent straight to you. By Jason Linkins 1. Larry Sabato has an electoral college map -- the first for !
That means it's time for us to update our Electoral College handicapping for the first time since December. Before we start, we'll make the necessary caveats. First and foremost, the primaries are still ongoing, which means a lot could happen before Election Day.
State-by-state polling at this point is scattershot. The identities of the nominees may change. There could even be a third-party candidacy that would scramble the race.
Still, Clinton and Trump are currently the frontrunners, and the fact that they're well-known by voters makes it possible to take a preliminary look at what the map of battleground states may look like come November.
Eight are moving in the Democrats' direction, and one state is moving in the Republicans' direction. The shift toward the Democrats stems from voter antagonism toward Trump in certain states, particularly those with large minority populations.
A reverse shift to the GOP in states with above-average numbers of noncollege-educated whites -- a core Trump constituency -- may also occur, but our sources aren't seeing such a shift just yet. As always, we're categorizing states as safe Republican, likely Republican, lean Republican, tossup, lean Democratic, likely Democratic and safe Democratic.
Within each category, the states run from most likely to vote Republican to most likely to vote Democratic.
For this handicapping, we're shifting one state, Arizona, from likely Republican to lean Republican, and two states -- Missouri and North Carolina -- from lean Republican to tossup. We're also shifting four states from tossup to lean Democratic: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia.
This is a stunner, since Utah is one of the most solidly Republican states in the nation and hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since But if further polls confirm this trend, we could shift Utah in the Democrats' direction again.
In addition, we're waiting to see polls from other strongly Republican states that have large Mormon populations, such as Idaho and Wyoming, to see whether shifts are warranted in these places as well.
Meanwhile, we're shifting just one state in the Republicans' direction -- Minnesota, which moves from likely Democratic to lean Democratic. We're also moving the more rural and conservative congressional 2nd district in Maine, one of only two states where electoral votes are allocated based on congressional districts, from lean Democratic to tossup.
Taken in their entirety, these changes tilt a modestly Democratic-leaning playing field to a more strongly Democratic-leaning playing field. The GOP starts with electoral votes either in the safe or likely category, down from in our last handicapping.
The Democrats start with electoral votes considered safe or likely, down from But the big shifts appear once you add in the seats that lean toward one party or the other.Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College Election Find this Pin and more on School by Shilo Parisian.
Information on how the residents of New York have voted in presidential elections. May 04, · In that scenario, Mr. Trump would win five additional battleground states that Mitt Romney lost in , a big swing in the electoral map that would leave him with roughly 30 electoral .
Apr 21, · The first electoral college map for has been released for us to masticate, digest and, much later, expel from one end of our alimentary canal or another, depending on taste.
Of course, no two presidential races are alike and Trump’s Electoral College path may be difficult to replicate by a more typical GOP politician in against a less polarizing Democratic nominee.
As Election Day approaches, there are a variety of national polls showing Donald Trump in the lead, with one recent survey from Rasmussen having him ahead of Hillary Clinton by two points.
A Mic sneak peek at a new interactive map from SurveyMonkey, which goes public at 9 a.m. Tuesday, shows Democrat Hillary Clinton ahead not just overall in Electoral College projections, but with.